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	<title>Flirting With Models &#187; backtesting</title>
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		<title>Some thoughts on Back Testing</title>
		<link>http://coreyhoffstein.com/2010/01/06/some-thoughts-on-back-testing/</link>
		<comments>http://coreyhoffstein.com/2010/01/06/some-thoughts-on-back-testing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 21:15:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Corey</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[backtesting]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Back testing is fairly common when analyzing the profitability of a strategy, but there are many other things to be considered besides returns.  Much of this list came from perusing Nuclear Phynance (particularly, FDAXHunter&#8217;s input). Length of the Period Tested: Over what time-frame did you run the test? How long was that time-frame?  What market [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back testing is fairly common when analyzing the profitability of a strategy, but there are many other things to be considered besides returns.  Much of this list came from perusing Nuclear Phynance (particularly, FDAXHunter&#8217;s input).</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Length of the Period Tested: </strong>Over what time-frame did you run the test? How long was that time-frame?  What market conditions persisted over it?  The goal should be to run the strategy on as diverse a time-frame as possible, to help you discover what market factors play a critical role in the success or failure of your method.</li>
<li><strong>Out of Sample Tests &amp; Locations: </strong>Much like above, you want to have a fairly significant and diverse set of out of sample data to test on.</li>
<li><strong>Average Trade / Win / Loss: </strong>What does the average trade of the system look like?  Are you normally profitable, or do you lost money and it was a couple fat-tail trades that gave you profitability?</li>
<li><strong>Volatility &amp; Skewness of P&amp;L Stream: </strong>Is your profitability stable?  Do you have a fat loss tail?  How skewed positive are you?</li>
<li><strong>Maximum Consecutive Losers / Winners: </strong>This is very important for when the system goes live.  Is five bad trades in a row a reason to pull the system?  Ten?  What is normal for the system?  When should we start getting concerned?</li>
<li><strong>Maximum Draw Down &amp; Time: </strong>If we implemented the system, what sort of draw-downs would we have to stomach, and over how long would we have to stomach them?  I don&#8217;t care much about a 1300% return over 5 years if for 4 of them, I faced an 80% draw-down.  You would probably pull the plug long before the fifth year came around.</li>
<li><strong>Average Draw Down &amp; Time: </strong>What does the average draw down look like?  Is it stable?</li>
<li><strong>Percent of Winners Removed Until Neutral: </strong>What percentage of our best trades do we have to remove before the system breaks?  Is it only a few?  Is our success based on a few large winners, or do we have a stable set of success?</li>
<li><strong>Histogram of P&amp;L: </strong>What does the P&amp;L look like, historically?  This is a visualization of the skew and volatility from above.</li>
<li><strong>Shape of Equity Curve: </strong>Are we talking about a long, smooth curve?  A curve with lots of jumps?  How much interim volatility between new highs?</li>
<li><strong>Optimal Parameter Location: </strong>Are the parameters we used in a stable location, or are they at a pin-point?  If they are at a pin-point, the success of the model is most likely the result of data-mining, instead of a true edge.  Instead, we would like to see that our parameters are in a plateau &#8212; the model remains stable for moderate changes in our parameter values.</li>
<li><strong>Performance in Other Markets: </strong>How does the model perform on securities it wasn&#8217;t designed to trade for?  Does it succeed in similar securities?  Does it fail in securities which the edge shouldn&#8217;t exist on?</li>
</ul>
<p>All of these things should be considered along-side a simple profitability analysis, or else you will end up with a &#8216;successful back-test of three years, blow up in three days&#8217; scenario.</p>
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